Riding profile

Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Lot-et-Garonne

The question

Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Lot-et-Garonne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michel LAUZZANA

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.1
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.9%
  • Left (NFP) 24.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 23.3%
  • Others 3.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereLot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription 45.9%24.8%23.3%3.7%
Provincial averageLot-et-Garonne 46.6% −0.7 27.1% −2.3 20.1% +3.2 2.5% +1.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.9 29.5% −4.7 20.6% +2.8 3.9% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sébastien DELBOSQ RN and allies 26,034 43.1
Michel LAUZZANA Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,155 28.4
Paul VO VAN Left (NFP) 15,479 25.6
Patrice CUQUEL Others 1,021 1.7
Mohamed EL MARBATI Far left 700 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
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