Riding profile
Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription
The question
Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Lot-et-Garonne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michel LAUZZANA
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.1
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription | 45.9% | 24.8% | 23.3% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageLot-et-Garonne | 46.6% −0.7 | 27.1% −2.3 | 20.1% +3.2 | 2.5% +1.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.9 | 29.5% −4.7 | 20.6% +2.8 | 3.9% −0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien DELBOSQ | RN and allies | 26,034 | 43.1 | — |
| Michel LAUZZANA Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,155 | 28.4 | — |
| Paul VO VAN | Left (NFP) | 15,479 | 25.6 | — |
| Patrice CUQUEL | Others | 1,021 | 1.7 | — |
| Mohamed EL MARBATI | Far left | 700 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Gers — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Lot-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gers — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Dordogne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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