Riding profile

Dordogne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Dordogne

The question

Dordogne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Dordogne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Dordogne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Serge MULLER

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.5%
  • Left (NFP) 27.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.6%
  • LR and allies 9.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereDordogne — 2ème circonscription 45.5%27.4%14.6%9.2%
Provincial averageDordogne 42.6% +2.9 29.3% −1.9 16.7% −2.1 8.1% +1.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.5 29.5% −2.1 20.6% −6.0 12.2% −3.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Serge MULLER Elected RN and allies 24,374 42.7
Christophe CATHUS Left (NFP) 16,131 28.3
Michel DELPON Centre (Ensemble) 11,173 19.6
Josie BAYLE LR and allies 4,574 8.0
Lise KHELFAOUI Far left 816 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next