Riding profile

Gironde — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 10ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Gironde — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 25% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Florent BOUDIÉ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.9%
  • Left (NFP) 23.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.9%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereGironde — 10ème circonscription 46.6%24.9%23.4%2.0%
Provincial averageGironde 36.0% +10.6 24.0% +0.8 32.7% −9.3 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.6 20.6% +4.3 29.5% −6.1 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sandrine CHADOURNE RN and allies 25,037 43.8
Florent BOUDIÉ Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,128 30.0
Pascal BOURGOIS Left (NFP) 13,885 24.3
Hélène HALBIN Far left 1,117 1.9
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next