Riding profile

Gironde — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 12ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Gironde — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mathilde FELD

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.2%
  • Left (NFP) 28.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.5%
  • LR and allies 4.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereGironde — 12ème circonscription 41.2%28.0%22.5%4.7%
Provincial averageGironde 36.0% +5.2 32.7% −4.8 24.0% −1.5 3.7% +1.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.2 29.5% −1.5 20.6% +2.0 12.2% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rémy BERTHONNEAU RN and allies 24,016 38.4
Mathilde FELD Elected Left (NFP) 18,042 28.9
Pascal LAVERGNE Centre (Ensemble) 17,270 27.6
Gabriel LANDETE LR and allies 2,180 3.5
Richard LAVIN Far left 1,021 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next