Riding profile
Gironde — 12ème circonscription
The question
Gironde — 12ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Gironde — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mathilde FELD
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.3
- P(close race)
- 4%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGironde — 12ème circonscription | 41.2% | 28.0% | 22.5% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 36.0% +5.2 | 32.7% −4.8 | 24.0% −1.5 | 3.7% +1.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +5.2 | 29.5% −1.5 | 20.6% +2.0 | 12.2% −7.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rémy BERTHONNEAU | RN and allies | 24,016 | 38.4 | — |
| Mathilde FELD Elected | Left (NFP) | 18,042 | 28.9 | — |
| Pascal LAVERGNE | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,270 | 27.6 | — |
| Gabriel LANDETE | LR and allies | 2,180 | 3.5 | — |
| Richard LAVIN | Far left | 1,021 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Gironde — 10ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Lot-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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