Riding profile
Gironde — 2ème circonscription
The question
Gironde — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Gironde — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 48% vote share, against 24% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nicolas THIERRY
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGironde — 2ème circonscription | 48.4% | 24.0% | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 32.7% +15.7 | 24.0% | 36.0% −19.0 | 3.7% +4.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +18.9 | 20.6% +3.4 | 36.0% −19.0 | 12.2% −4.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas THIERRY Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,547 | 49.5 | — |
| Véronique JURAMY | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,610 | 29.1 | — |
| Flavie FOURNIER | RN and allies | 7,510 | 14.0 | — |
| Christine ERRERA | LR and allies | 3,692 | 6.9 | — |
| Guy DUPONT | Far left | 307 | 0.6 | — |
| Yanis IVA | RN and allies | 20 | 0.0 | — |
| David PIJOAN | Far left | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Gironde — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Gironde — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 6ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Gironde — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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