Riding profile

Gironde — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 5ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Gironde — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pascale GOT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.1%
  • Left (NFP) 30.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.2%
  • LR and allies 3.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereGironde — 5ème circonscription 45.1%30.9%17.2%3.9%
Provincial averageGironde 36.0% +9.1 32.7% −1.9 24.0% −6.9 3.7% +0.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.1 29.5% +1.4 20.6% −3.4 12.2% −8.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Grégoire DE FOURNAS RN and allies 35,457 42.3
Pascale GOT Elected Left (NFP) 26,631 31.8
Stéphane SENCE Centre (Ensemble) 15,576 18.6
Benoït SIMIAN Centre (Ensemble) 3,041 3.6
Laurent TOUSSAINT LR and allies 2,218 2.6
Thierry FAGEGALTIER Far left 858 1.0
Last model run
Cycle
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