Riding profile

Gironde — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 1ère circonscription: can the centrist bloc hold this seat?

Editorial read

Gironde — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 37% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Thomas CAZENAVE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Competitive

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
32%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 37.4%
  • Left (NFP) 33.3%
  • RN and allies 25.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
HereGironde — 1ère circonscription 37.4%33.3%25.5%2.0%
Provincial averageGironde 24.0% +13.3 32.7% +0.6 36.0% −10.5 2.0%
National averageFrance 20.6% +16.8 29.5% +3.8 36.0% −10.5 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thomas CAZENAVE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 28,564 38.3 —
Céline PAPIN Left (NFP) 25,517 34.2 —
Bruno PALUTEAU RN and allies 15,654 21.0 —
Béatrice POMAREL Centre (Ensemble) 3,143 4.2 —
Virginie TOURNAY RN and allies 1,164 1.6 —
Fanny QUANDALLE Far left 511 0.7 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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