Riding profile

Gironde — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Gironde — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 49% vote share, against 24% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Loïc PRUD'HOMME

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 49.3%
  • RN and allies 23.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereGironde — 3ème circonscription 49.3%23.6%22.7%2.0%
Provincial averageGironde 32.7% +16.6 36.0% −12.4 24.0% −1.3 2.0%
National averageFrance 29.5% +19.8 36.0% −12.4 20.6% +2.1 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+25.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Loïc PRUD'HOMME Elected Left (NFP) 30,664 49.8 —
Ariane ARY Centre (Ensemble) 17,080 27.8 —
Maryvonne BASTERES RN and allies 12,037 19.6 —
Cyrille DOUMENGE RN and allies 679 1.1 —
Jacques GULDNER Far left 572 0.9 —
Flora SAVINO Left (NFP) 305 0.5 —
Nathan MINVIELLE-LARROUSSE Far left 196 0.3 —
Johan GIRAUD-GIRARD Others 4 0.0 —
Yacine TOUZANI Others 2 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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