Riding profile
Gironde — 4ème circonscription
The question
Gironde — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Gironde — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 41% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alain DAVID
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 94%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.2
- P(close race)
- 12%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGironde — 4ème circonscription | 41.4% | 35.2% | 12.3% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 32.7% +8.6 | 36.0% −0.8 | 24.0% −11.8 | 3.7% +4.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +11.9 | 36.0% −0.8 | 20.6% −8.3 | 12.2% −4.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alain DAVID Elected | Left (NFP) | 27,092 | 42.4 | — |
| Julie RECHAGNEUX | RN and allies | 20,702 | 32.4 | — |
| Fabrice MORETTI | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,045 | 17.3 | — |
| Jérôme LAMBERT | LR and allies | 4,387 | 6.9 | — |
| Anne-Isabelle BRIVARY | Far left | 734 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Gironde — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Gironde — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 11ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 6ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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