Riding profile

Gironde — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Gironde — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 21% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Edwige DIAZ

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.1%
  • Left (NFP) 21.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.5%
  • Far left 2.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Far left
HereGironde — 11ème circonscription 56.1%21.2%17.5%2.0%
Provincial averageGironde 36.0% +20.1 32.7% −11.6 24.0% −6.5 1.1% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.1 29.5% −8.3 20.6% −3.1 1.1% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+34.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edwige DIAZ Elected RN and allies 34,590 53.3
Véronique HAMMERER Centre (Ensemble) 14,619 22.5
Cécilia FONSECA Left (NFP) 14,287 22.0
Zina AHMIMOU Far left 1,359 2.1
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next