Riding profile

Charente-Maritime — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Charente-Maritime

The question

Charente-Maritime — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Charente-Maritime — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Charente-Maritime, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 23% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pascal MARKOWSKY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.9%
  • Left (NFP) 16.6%
  • LR and allies 9.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereCharente-Maritime — 4ème circonscription 48.0%22.9%16.6%9.5%
Provincial averageCharente-Maritime 40.2% +7.8 23.4% −0.5 32.6% −16.0 5.3% +4.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.0 20.6% +2.3 29.5% −12.9 12.2% −2.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+25.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pascal MARKOWSKY Elected RN and allies 28,510 45.2 —
Raphaël GERARD Centre (Ensemble) 17,625 27.9 —
Danièle DESSELLES Left (NFP) 10,972 17.4 —
Céline DROUILLARD LR and allies 5,251 8.3 —
Olivier TRIPELON Far left 707 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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