Riding profile

Gironde — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 7ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Gironde — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sébastien SAINT-PASTEUR

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 37.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.5%
  • RN and allies 26.5%
  • Greens 2.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Greens
HereGironde — 7ème circonscription 37.8%29.5%26.5%2.2%
Provincial averageGironde 32.7% +5.0 24.0% +5.5 36.0% −9.5 1.7% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +8.3 20.6% +8.9 36.0% −9.5 2.1% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sébastien SAINT-PASTEUR Elected Left (NFP) 21,913 38.5 —
Bérangère COUILLARD Centre (Ensemble) 18,854 33.1 —
Clémence NAVEYS--DUMAS RN and allies 12,766 22.4 —
Ousmane THIAM Greens 1,597 2.8 —
Christelle COTTON Centre (Ensemble) 760 1.3 —
Dominique DE WITTE RN and allies 589 1.0 —
Monique ORATTO Far left 442 0.8 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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