Riding profile

Gironde — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 9ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Gironde — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sophie METTE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
16.0
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.0%
  • Left (NFP) 27.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereGironde — 9ème circonscription 43.0%27.0%24.9%2.0%
Provincial averageGironde 36.0% +7.0 32.7% −5.7 24.0% +0.9 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.0 29.5% −2.5 20.6% +4.4 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François-Xavier MARQUES RN and allies 27,868 38.5
Sophie METTE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,714 30.0
Corinne MARTINEZ Left (NFP) 20,163 27.9
Jean-Philippe DELCAMP Far left 1,368 1.9
Sylvie MANTEL RN and allies 1,188 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next