Riding profile
Gironde — 9ème circonscription
The question
Gironde — 9ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Gironde — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sophie METTE
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.0
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGironde — 9ème circonscription | 43.0% | 27.0% | 24.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 36.0% +7.0 | 32.7% −5.7 | 24.0% +0.9 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.0 | 29.5% −2.5 | 20.6% +4.4 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François-Xavier MARQUES | RN and allies | 27,868 | 38.5 | — |
| Sophie METTE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 21,714 | 30.0 | — |
| Corinne MARTINEZ | Left (NFP) | 20,163 | 27.9 | — |
| Jean-Philippe DELCAMP | Far left | 1,368 | 1.9 | — |
| Sylvie MANTEL | RN and allies | 1,188 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Gironde — 12ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Landes — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gironde — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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