Riding profile

Landes — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Landes

The question

Landes — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Landes — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Landes, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Geneviève DARRIEUSSECQ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
14.8
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.0%
  • Left (NFP) 26.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.1%
  • LR and allies 5.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLandes — 1ère circonscription 41.0%26.2%24.1%5.6%
Provincial averageLandes 39.0% +2.0 30.0% −3.8 20.6% +3.6 6.9% −1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.0 29.5% −3.3 20.6% +3.5 12.2% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Véronique FOSSEY RN and allies 28,138 37.2 —
Geneviève DARRIEUSSECQ Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,353 28.3 —
Marie-Laure LAFARGUE Left (NFP) 20,466 27.1 —
Fabienne CHRIT LR and allies 3,343 4.4 —
Jean Claude BON Far left 852 1.1 —
Dominique JARREAU Centre (Ensemble) 720 0.9 —
Isabelle HENAFF RN and allies 700 0.9 —
Degny Hermann AMESSAN Centre (Ensemble) 4 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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