Riding profile

Landes — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Landes

The question

Landes — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Landes — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Landes, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lionel CAUSSE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
49%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.5%
  • Left (NFP) 27.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.0%
  • LR and allies 6.5%
  • Others 3.5%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLandes — 2ème circonscription 36.5%27.5%25.0%6.5%
Provincial averageLandes 39.0% −2.5 30.0% −2.4 20.6% +4.4 6.9% −0.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.5 29.5% −2.0 20.6% +4.4 12.2% −5.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ludovic BIESBROUCK RN and allies 28,264 32.6 —
Lionel CAUSSE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,051 30.1 —
Jean-Marc LESPADE Left (NFP) 24,645 28.4 —
Marc VERNIER LR and allies 4,625 5.3 —
Dominique LECUONA Others 1,358 1.6 —
Stéphane DAVID RN and allies 918 1.1 —
Pascal DEMANGEOT Far left 839 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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