Riding profile

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Atlantiques

The question

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Atlantiques, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 32% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Colette CAPDEVIELLE

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
66%
Mean margin (pts)
0.0
P(close race)
68%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 31.6%
  • RN and allies 31.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.7%
  • LR and allies 7.2%
  • Others 5.7%
  • Greens 1.7%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HerePyrénées-Atlantiques — 5ème circonscription 31.6%31.6%21.7%7.2%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Atlantiques 34.2% −2.6 30.8% +0.7 22.6% −0.9 13.8% −6.6
National averageFrance 29.5% +2.1 36.0% −4.4 20.6% +1.1 12.2% −5.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Colette CAPDEVIELLE Elected Left (NFP) 22,643 32.3 —
Serge ROSSO RN and allies 19,308 27.5 —
Florence LASSERRE Centre (Ensemble) 18,667 26.6 —
Valérie CASTREC LR and allies 4,198 6.0 —
Johanna GRATELOUP Greens 1,567 2.2 —
Jean-Marie ERRAMUZPE Others 1,414 2.0 —
Jean Claude LABADIE Others 1,010 1.4 —
Alain CAYUELA RN and allies 671 1.0 —
Philippe BARDANOUVE Far left 477 0.7 —
Hélène SUSBIELLE Others 154 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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