Riding profile

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Atlantiques

The question

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Atlantiques, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 52% vote share, against 33% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David HABIB

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 51.7%
  • RN and allies 33.0%
  • LR and allies 10.8%
  • Others 2.7%
  • Greens 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Others
HerePyrénées-Atlantiques — 3ème circonscription 51.7%33.0%10.8%2.7%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Atlantiques 34.2% +17.5 30.8% +2.1 13.8% −3.0 4.2% −1.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +22.2 36.0% −3.0 12.2% −1.4 3.9% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David HABIB Elected Left (NFP) 22,271 37.6 —
Nicolas CRESSON RN and allies 18,670 31.6 —
Joëlle LOSSON Left (NFP) 10,255 17.3 —
Gilles MARDELLE LR and allies 5,998 10.1 —
Kévin BRIOLAIS Greens 1,154 1.9 —
Audric ARMAND MÈGE Others 475 0.8 —
Antoine MISSIER Far left 358 0.6 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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