Riding profile

Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hautes-Pyrénées

The question

Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hautes-Pyrénées, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Denis FÉGNÉ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.0%
  • Left (NFP) 27.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.9%
  • LR and allies 6.5%
  • Others 4.4%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereHautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription 41.0%27.2%19.9%6.5%
Provincial averageHautes-Pyrénées 38.6% +2.4 27.2% 19.9% 6.2% +0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.0 29.5% −2.3 20.6% −0.7 12.2% −5.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olivier MONTEIL RN and allies 22,436 37.0 —
Denis FÉGNÉ Elected Left (NFP) 17,055 28.1 —
Benoit MOURNET Centre (Ensemble) 15,121 24.9 —
Jacques BÉHAGUE LR and allies 3,184 5.2 —
Jean-Marc DABAT Others 1,486 2.5 —
Claude ALVES DA CUNHA RN and allies 735 1.2 —
François MEUNIER Far left 692 1.1 —
Ali EL MARSNI Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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