Riding profile

Gers — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Gers

The question

Gers — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Gers — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Gers, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jean-René CAZENEUVE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
13.5
P(close race)
28%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 39.9%
  • Left (NFP) 26.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.9%
  • Others 3.9%
  • Greens 2.1%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereGers — 1ère circonscription 39.9%26.4%25.9%3.9%
Provincial averageGers 38.8% +1.1 34.6% −8.1 25.9% 4.1% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.9 29.5% −3.1 20.6% +5.4 3.9% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Luc YELMA RN and allies 18,575 35.7 —
Jean-René CAZENEUVE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,072 30.9 —
Pascal LEVIEUX Left (NFP) 14,129 27.2 —
Alexis BOUDAUD ANDUAGA Greens 1,375 2.6 —
Ludovic LARRÉ Others 959 1.8 —
Aurore CAZES RN and allies 587 1.1 —
Jean-Louis CHARETON Far left 296 0.6 —
Adrien AYMES Others 16 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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