Riding profile

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Atlantiques

The question

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Atlantiques, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean-Paul MATTEÏ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability: 68%
Mean margin (pts): 8.4
P(close race): 58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 34.2%
Left (NFP) 25.8%
Centre (Ensemble) 24.6%
LR and allies 8.9%
Others 3.8%
Greens 1.9%
Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HerePyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription	34.2%	25.8%	24.6%	8.9%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Atlantiques	30.8% +3.3	34.2% −8.4	22.6% +2.1	13.8% −4.9
National averageFrance	36.0% −1.8	29.5% −3.7	20.6% +4.1	12.2% −3.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Centre (Ensemble)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+8.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Monique BECKER	RN and allies	18,910	31.1	—
Jean-Paul MATTEÏ Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	17,972	29.6	—
Julien BRUNEL	Left (NFP)	16,083	26.5	—
Marc LABAT	LR and allies	4,647	7.7	—
Jacques MAUHOURAT	Greens	1,497	2.5	—
Patrici CESCAU	Others	1,079	1.8	—
Cyrille MARCONI	Far left	530	0.9	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next