Riding profile

Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Lot-et-Garonne

The question

Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Lot-et-Garonne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Guillaume LEPERS

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
11.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.8%
  • Left (NFP) 30.5%
  • LR and allies 24.9%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Others
HereLot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscription 41.8%30.5%24.9%1.9%
Provincial averageLot-et-Garonne 46.6% −4.8 27.1% +3.4 9.1% +15.7 2.5% −0.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.8 29.5% +1.0 12.2% +12.6 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Annick COUSIN RN and allies 21,170 41.1
Guillaume LEPERS Elected LR and allies 12,876 25.0
Xavier CZAPLA Left (NFP) 9,504 18.4
Jérôme CAHUZAC Left (NFP) 7,457 14.5
Bernadette GASC Far left 521 1.0
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next