Riding profile

Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Tarn-et-Garonne

The question

Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Tarn-et-Garonne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marine HAMELET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 19.3
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 51.9%
Left (NFP) 32.6%
Centre (Ensemble) 10.6%
Others 2.5%
LR and allies 1.2%
Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	Others
HereTarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription	51.9%	32.6%	10.6%	2.5%
Provincial averageTarn-et-Garonne	49.3% +2.6	34.3% −1.6	10.9% −0.3	2.8% −0.4
National averageFrance	36.0% +15.9	29.5% +3.2	20.6% −10.0	3.9% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+19.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Marine HAMELET Elected	RN and allies	32,578	49.2	—
Claudie CHRETIEN	Left (NFP)	12,286	18.5	—
Jules DUFFAUT	Centre (Ensemble)	10,335	15.6	—
Anne IUS	Left (NFP)	9,952	15.0	—
Françoise RATSIMBA	Far left	791	1.2	—
Claire AYMES	Others	310	0.5	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next