Riding profile

Aude — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Aude

The question

Aude — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Aude — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aude, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julien RANCOULE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.6%
  • Left (NFP) 31.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 8.1%
  • LR and allies 7.5%
  • Others 3.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereAude — 3ème circonscription 48.6%31.8%8.1%7.5%
Provincial averageAude 51.4% −2.9 29.1% +2.6 11.6% −3.6 3.7% +3.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.6 29.5% +2.3 20.6% −12.5 12.2% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien RANCOULE Elected RN and allies 27,946 44.7 —
Philippe ANDRIEU Left (NFP) 20,426 32.7 —
Sylvie SOREL-LESTIN Centre (Ensemble) 8,155 13.0 —
Jean-François LECLERC LR and allies 2,096 3.4 —
Christine CHAMPION LR and allies 1,868 3.0 —
Bernard BIANCO Others 759 1.2 —
Nathalie MARTEEL RN and allies 681 1.1 —
Dominique GALONNIER Far left 585 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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