Riding profile
Tarn — 3ème circonscription
The question
Tarn — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Tarn — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Tarn, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jean TERLIER
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.8
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTarn — 3ème circonscription | 46.3% | 24.5% | 23.5% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageTarn | 44.0% +2.3 | 27.7% −3.2 | 21.5% +2.0 | 2.9% +0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +10.3 | 29.5% −5.0 | 20.6% +2.9 | 3.9% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilhem CARAYON | RN and allies | 31,748 | 43.5 | — |
| Jean TERLIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,870 | 28.6 | — |
| Julien LASSALLE | Left (NFP) | 18,525 | 25.4 | — |
| Claire DAUGÉ | Others | 965 | 1.3 | — |
| Chantal TRESSENS | Far left | 767 | 1.1 | — |
| Alban AZAIS | Sovereignists | 95 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Tarn — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Tarn — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Aude — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next