Riding profile

Tarn — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Tarn

The question

Tarn — 2ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Tarn — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Tarn, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Karen ERODI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
11.3
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.0%
  • Left (NFP) 30.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.7%
  • LR and allies 6.6%
  • Others 3.4%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereTarn — 2ème circonscription 42.0%30.7%16.7%6.6%
Provincial averageTarn 44.0% −1.9 27.7% +3.0 21.5% −4.9 3.0% +3.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.1 29.5% +1.2 20.6% −3.9 12.2% −5.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien BACOU RN and allies 28,850 37.9 —
Karen ERODI Elected Left (NFP) 24,048 31.6 —
Pierre VERDIER Centre (Ensemble) 16,501 21.7 —
Thierno BAH LR and allies 4,082 5.4 —
Joël ENCONTRE Others 1,058 1.4 —
Frederic LAMOUCHE RN and allies 989 1.3 —
Boris GIMENEZ SASTRE Far left 512 0.7 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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