Riding profile
Tarn — 1ère circonscription
The question
Tarn — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Tarn — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Tarn, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Philippe BONNECARRERE
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.9
- P(close race)
- 5%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTarn — 1ère circonscription | 43.6% | 27.8% | 24.4% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageTarn | 44.0% −0.4 | 27.7% +0.1 | 21.5% +2.9 | 2.9% −0.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.7 | 29.5% −1.7 | 20.6% +3.9 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frédéric CABROLIER | RN and allies | 23,237 | 39.5 | — |
| Philippe BONNECARRERE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,352 | 29.5 | — |
| Margot LAPEYRE | Left (NFP) | 16,673 | 28.4 | — |
| Denis ROUQUETTE | RN and allies | 769 | 1.3 | — |
| Eric CHAVEGRAND | Far left | 567 | 1.0 | — |
| Orphée PAUTHIER | Left (NFP) | 178 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Tarn — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aveyron — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Tarn — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aude — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aveyron — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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