Riding profile

Aude — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Aude

The question

Aude — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Aude — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Aude, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christophe BARTHÈS

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 53.3%
  • Left (NFP) 30.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereAude — 1ère circonscription 53.3%30.5%12.5%2.0%
Provincial averageAude 51.4% +1.9 29.1% +1.3 11.6% +0.9 3.4% −1.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +17.3 29.5% +1.0 20.6% −8.0 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christophe BARTHÈS Elected RN and allies 32,916 49.3 —
Philippe POUTOU Left (NFP) 12,475 18.7 —
Jean-Claude PEREZ Centre (Ensemble) 11,252 16.9 —
Aurélien TURCHETTO Left (NFP) 8,463 12.7 —
Fabrice COFFINET RN and allies 823 1.2 —
Laure-Nelly AMALRIC Centre (Ensemble) 465 0.7 —
Nicole GADRAT Far left 327 0.5 —
Jean-Marc MARIN LR and allies 4 0.0 —
Monique FERRÉ Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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