Riding profile

Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Orientales

The question

Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Orientales, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 59% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anaïs SABATINI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 59.5%
  • Left (NFP) 19.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.4%
  • Others 3.9%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HerePyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription 59.5%19.1%15.4%3.9%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Orientales 52.7% +6.7 24.0% −4.9 14.6% +0.8 4.4% −0.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +23.5 29.5% −10.4 20.6% −5.2 3.9%

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+40.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anaïs SABATINI Elected RN and allies 38,323 55.0 —
Marc MEDINA Centre (Ensemble) 14,257 20.4 —
David BERRUÉ Left (NFP) 13,910 20.0 —
Mercedes GARCIA Others 1,337 1.9 —
Brigitte LAURENS RN and allies 1,258 1.8 —
Philippe GOISET Far left 618 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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