Riding profile

Pyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Orientales

The question

Pyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Orientales, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michèle MARTINEZ

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.0%
  • Left (NFP) 25.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.5%
  • LR and allies 5.8%
  • Others 4.8%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HerePyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription 52.0%25.1%11.5%5.8%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Orientales 52.7% −0.7 24.0% +1.1 14.6% −3.0 3.5% +2.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.1 29.5% −4.4 20.6% −9.0 12.2% −6.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+27.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michèle MARTINEZ Elected RN and allies 33,159 47.9 —
Julien BARAILLÉ Left (NFP) 17,963 25.9 —
Patricia NADAL Centre (Ensemble) 11,454 16.5 —
Philippe ROMAIN LR and allies 3,183 4.6 —
Celine DAVESA Others 1,937 2.8 —
Odile MAISONNEUVE RN and allies 960 1.4 —
Caroline POUPARD Far left 575 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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