Riding profile

Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Orientales

The question

Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Orientales, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sophie BLANC

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.5%
  • Left (NFP) 24.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.0%
  • LR and allies 5.6%
  • Others 3.6%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HerePyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription 49.5%24.6%16.0%5.6%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Orientales 52.7% −3.3 24.0% +0.6 14.6% +1.4 3.5% +2.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.5 29.5% −4.9 20.6% −4.6 12.2% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sophie BLANC Elected RN and allies 21,633 45.2 —
Francis DASPE Left (NFP) 12,184 25.5 —
Christophe EUZET Centre (Ensemble) 7,720 16.1 —
Annabelle BRUNET Centre (Ensemble) 2,328 4.9 —
Loïc MOSZKOWIEZ LR and allies 2,092 4.4 —
Delphine DANAT Others 790 1.6 —
Jacques CATALDO RN and allies 700 1.5 —
Pascale ADVENARD Far left 374 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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