Riding profile

Hérault — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hérault

The question

Hérault — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Hérault — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Julien GABARRON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
21%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.8%
  • LR and allies 28.3%
  • Left (NFP) 20.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 4.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereHérault — 6ème circonscription 43.8%28.3%20.2%4.9%
Provincial averageHérault 42.0% +1.8 7.1% +21.2 32.4% −12.2 14.8% −9.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.9 12.2% +16.1 29.5% −9.3 20.6% −15.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien GABARRON Elected RN and allies 25,563 41.0 —
Emmanuelle MÉNARD LR and allies 16,968 27.3 —
Magali CROZIER Left (NFP) 13,126 21.1 —
Sarah Fatima DAUDÉ-ALLAOUI Centre (Ensemble) 6,149 9.9 —
Laurent GILHODES Far left 472 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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