Riding profile

Hérault — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hérault

The question

Hérault — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Hérault — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 54% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphanie GALZY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 53.6%
  • Left (NFP) 31.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.0%
  • Others 3.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereHérault — 5ème circonscription 53.6%31.4%9.0%3.6%
Provincial averageHérault 42.0% +11.6 32.4% −1.1 14.8% −5.8 2.2% +1.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +17.7 29.5% +1.9 20.6% −11.6 3.9% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphanie GALZY Elected RN and allies 32,781 48.9
Aurélien MANENC Left (NFP) 21,640 32.3
Philippe HUPPÉ Centre (Ensemble) 9,369 14.0
Lilian BOURRIE RN and allies 1,346 2.0
Rémy GROUSSARD Others 1,121 1.7
Véronique CHESNARD Far left 809 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
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