Riding profile

Aude — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Aude

The question

Aude — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Aude — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aude, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frédéric FALCON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.5%
  • Left (NFP) 25.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.3%
  • Others 5.2%
  • LR and allies 2.3%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereAude — 2ème circonscription 52.5%25.1%14.3%5.2%
Provincial averageAude 51.4% +1.0 29.1% −4.0 11.6% +2.7 3.4% +1.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.5 29.5% −4.3 20.6% −6.3 3.9% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+27.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frédéric FALCON Elected RN and allies 29,212 48.1 —
Viviane THIVENT Left (NFP) 15,795 26.0 —
Christine BREYTON Centre (Ensemble) 11,727 19.3 —
Gérard LENFANT Others 1,927 3.2 —
Alain PEYRE RN and allies 969 1.6 —
Alain BRUN LR and allies 654 1.1 —
Annette VIGIER Far left 418 0.7 —
Nicole GRAU Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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