Riding profile

Pyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pyrénées-Orientales

The question

Pyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pyrénées-Orientales, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sandrine DOGOR-SUCH

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.0%
  • Left (NFP) 27.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.4%
  • Others 5.2%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HerePyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription 50.0%27.1%15.4%5.2%
Provincial averagePyrénées-Orientales 52.7% −2.7 24.0% +3.2 14.6% +0.8 4.4% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.0 29.5% −2.3 20.6% −5.2 3.9% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sandrine DOGOR-SUCH Elected RN and allies 25,363 45.6 —
Nathalie CULLELL Left (NFP) 15,603 28.0 —
Laurence GAYTE Centre (Ensemble) 11,367 20.4 —
Lucila GRAU Others 1,780 3.2 —
Alexandre MICHAUT RN and allies 935 1.7 —
Anna-Maria URROZ Far left 612 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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