Riding profile
Lot — 1ère circonscription
The question
Lot — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Lot — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Lot, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 43% vote share, against 27% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Aurélien PRADIÉ
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLot — 1ère circonscription | 43.2% | 26.7% | 23.5% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageLot | 22.2% +21.0 | 30.0% −3.3 | 30.6% −7.2 | 12.9% −9.0 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +31.0 | 36.0% −9.3 | 29.5% −6.0 | 20.6% −16.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurélien PRADIÉ Elected | LR and allies | 22,180 | 42.3 | — |
| Elsa BOUGEARD | Left (NFP) | 12,775 | 24.3 | — |
| Slavka MIHAYLOVA | RN and allies | 12,108 | 23.1 | — |
| Frédéric DECREMPS | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,689 | 8.9 | — |
| François TESSON | RN and allies | 398 | 0.8 | — |
| Ghislain DOMENECH | Far left | 353 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Lot — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Dordogne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Corrèze — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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