Riding profile

Lot — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Lot

The question

Lot — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Lot — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Lot, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 38% vote share, against 33% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christophe PROENÇA

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 37.8%
  • RN and allies 33.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.9%
  • Others 4.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereLot — 2ème circonscription 37.8%33.2%21.9%4.6%
Provincial averageLot 30.6% +7.2 30.0% +3.3 12.9% +9.0 3.3% +1.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +8.3 36.0% −2.7 20.6% +1.3 3.9% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christophe PROENÇA Elected Left (NFP) 18,079 38.2
Gérard Raymond BLANCHET RN and allies 14,369 30.4
Huguette TIEGNA Centre (Ensemble) 12,752 27.0
Daniel PAGET Others 1,237 2.6
Marie-Michèle VIAU Far left 607 1.3
Rabah BOUGUERRA Left (NFP) 259 0.6
Last model run
Cycle
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