Riding profile

Côte-d'Or — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Côte-d'Or

The question

Côte-d'Or — 2ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Côte-d'Or — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Côte-d'Or, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine HERVIEU

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.7%
  • Left (NFP) 26.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.7%
  • LR and allies 9.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.9%
  • Far left 1.0%
  • Sovereignists 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereCôte-d'Or — 2ème circonscription 38.7%26.9%19.7%9.3%
Provincial averageCôte-d'Or 39.3% −0.6 25.6% +1.4 21.8% −2.1 13.9% −4.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.7 29.5% −2.6 20.6% −0.9 12.2% −2.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tatiana GUYENOT RN and allies 17,181 34.6 —
Catherine HERVIEU Elected Left (NFP) 13,723 27.7 —
Benoît BORDAT Centre (Ensemble) 12,225 24.6 —
Laurent BOURGUIGNAT LR and allies 3,982 8.0 —
Julien GONZALEZ Greens 1,222 2.5 —
Claire ROCHER Far left 522 1.1 —
Franck GAILLARD RN and allies 512 1.0 —
Elisabeth BERTRAND Sovereignists 231 0.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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