Riding profile
Doubs — 1ère circonscription
The question
Doubs — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Doubs — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Doubs, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 34% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Laurent CROIZIER
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 40%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.2
- P(close race)
- 97%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDoubs — 1ère circonscription | 34.3% | 31.0% | 28.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageDoubs | 40.3% −6.1 | 25.7% +5.3 | 19.7% +8.9 | 2.2% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% −1.7 | 29.5% +1.5 | 20.6% +8.0 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent CROIZIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,475 | 33.5 | — |
| Séverine VÉZIÈS | Left (NFP) | 16,555 | 31.8 | — |
| Thomas LUTZ | RN and allies | 16,264 | 31.2 | — |
| Marielle PERNIN | Greens | 923 | 1.8 | — |
| Nicole FRIESS | Far left | 780 | 1.5 | — |
| Alain RUCH | Far left | 133 | 0.3 | — |
| Elisa MORÉ | Others | 2 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Doubs — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Jura — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Haute-Saône — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Doubs — 5ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Côte-d'Or — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Jura — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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