Riding profile

Doubs — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Doubs

The question

Doubs — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Doubs — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Doubs, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 37% vote share, against 36% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Annie GENEVARD

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.6%
  • LR and allies 36.2%
  • Left (NFP) 16.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 7.4%
  • Others 2.8%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereDoubs — 5ème circonscription 36.6%36.2%16.0%7.4%
Provincial averageDoubs 40.3% −3.7 9.7% +26.5 25.7% −9.7 19.7% −12.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.6 12.2% +24.0 29.5% −13.5 20.6% −13.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Annie GENEVARD Elected LR and allies 20,356 35.2
Floriane JEANDENAND RN and allies 19,505 33.7
Matthieu CASSEZ Left (NFP) 9,709 16.8
Lucas BOILLOT Centre (Ensemble) 7,176 12.4
Sonya MORRISON Far left 588 1.0
Nolann LAURENT Others 497 0.9
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next