Riding profile

Doubs — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Doubs

The question

Doubs — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Doubs — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Doubs, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Géraldine GRANGIER

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.7%
  • Left (NFP) 27.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.6%
  • Far left 1.4%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereDoubs — 4ème circonscription 50.7%27.5%15.5%2.0%
Provincial averageDoubs 40.3% +10.4 25.7% +1.8 19.7% −4.2 2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.7 29.5% −2.0 20.6% −5.1 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Géraldine GRANGIER Elected RN and allies 19,863 47.6
Magali DUVERNOIS Left (NFP) 11,776 28.2
Philippe GAUTIER Centre (Ensemble) 8,527 20.4
Yves VOLA Greens 906 2.2
Michel TREPPO Far left 640 1.5
Last model run
Cycle
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