Riding profile
Doubs — 4ème circonscription
The question
Doubs — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Doubs — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Doubs, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Géraldine GRANGIER
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDoubs — 4ème circonscription | 50.7% | 27.5% | 15.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageDoubs | 40.3% +10.4 | 25.7% +1.8 | 19.7% −4.2 | 2.2% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +14.7 | 29.5% −2.0 | 20.6% −5.1 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Géraldine GRANGIER Elected | RN and allies | 19,863 | 47.6 | — |
| Magali DUVERNOIS | Left (NFP) | 11,776 | 28.2 | — |
| Philippe GAUTIER | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,527 | 20.4 | — |
| Yves VOLA | Greens | 906 | 2.2 | — |
| Michel TREPPO | Far left | 640 | 1.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Doubs — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Territoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Saône — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haut-Rhin — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Vosges — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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