Riding profile

Haut-Rhin — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haut-Rhin

The question

Haut-Rhin — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Haut-Rhin — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haut-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 20% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Didier LEMAIRE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 20.0%
  • LR and allies 14.7%
  • Left (NFP) 12.0%
  • Others 5.3%
  • Greens 3.6%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies Left (NFP)
HereHaut-Rhin — 3ème circonscription 43.1%20.0%14.7%12.0%
Provincial averageHaut-Rhin 40.8% +2.2 26.0% −6.1 12.0% +2.6 17.6% −5.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.1 20.6% −0.6 12.2% +2.4 29.5% −17.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christian ZIMMERMANN RN and allies 21,790 38.9 —
Didier LEMAIRE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 13,980 24.9 —
Thomas ZELLER LR and allies 7,521 13.4 —
Bénédicte VIROULET Left (NFP) 7,119 12.7 —
Jean-Denis ZOELLE Others 1,850 3.3 —
Antoine WAECHTER Greens 1,563 2.8 —
Gaelle CRESSIN Greens 785 1.4 —
Sandrine NOEL RN and allies 653 1.2 —
Simone FISCHER Sovereignists 579 1.0 —
Géraud FERRY Far left 234 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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