Riding profile

Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Territoire de Belfort

The question

Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Territoire de Belfort, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 25% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ian BOUCARD

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
17.4
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.5%
  • LR and allies 25.1%
  • Left (NFP) 21.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 6.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereTerritoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription 42.5%25.1%21.7%6.3%
Provincial averageTerritoire de Belfort 41.6% +0.9 21.7% +3.3 24.4% −2.7 8.3% −2.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.6 12.2% +12.9 29.5% −7.8 20.6% −14.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carine MANCK RN and allies 12,719 39.7 —
Ian BOUCARD Elected LR and allies 7,679 24.0 —
Marie-Eve BELORGEY Left (NFP) 7,233 22.6 —
Maggy GROSDIDIER Centre (Ensemble) 3,608 11.3 —
Christiane PETITOT Far left 426 1.3 —
Marion KEMPS HOUVER Sovereignists 350 1.1 —
Séverine MERLINI Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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