Riding profile

Doubs — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Doubs

The question

Doubs — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Doubs — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Doubs, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 25% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthieu BLOCH

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 47.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.1%
  • Left (NFP) 20.7%
  • Sovereignists 2.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Sovereignists
HereDoubs — 3ème circonscription 47.1%25.1%20.7%2.1%
Provincial averageDoubs 40.3% +6.8 19.7% +5.5 25.7% −5.0 2.1%
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.1 20.6% +4.5 29.5% −8.8 1.6% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matthieu BLOCH Elected RN and allies 18,795 44.4
Nicolas PACQUOT Centre (Ensemble) 12,806 30.2
Virginie DAYET Left (NFP) 9,138 21.6
Brandon KEMPS Sovereignists 889 2.1
Franck PLAIN Far left 753 1.8
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next