Riding profile

Territoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Territoire de Belfort

The question

Territoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Territoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Territoire de Belfort, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Guillaume BIGOT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.7%
  • Left (NFP) 27.1%
  • LR and allies 18.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereTerritoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscription 40.7%27.1%18.4%10.3%
Provincial averageTerritoire de Belfort 41.6% −0.9 24.4% +2.7 21.7% −3.3 8.3% +2.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.7 29.5% −2.4 12.2% +6.2 20.6% −10.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Guillaume BIGOT Elected RN and allies 11,887 37.9 —
Florian CHAUCHE Left (NFP) 8,799 28.0 —
Didier VALLVERDU LR and allies 5,422 17.3 —
Josée MARTINEZ Centre (Ensemble) 4,794 15.3 —
Simon PHEULPIN Far left 497 1.6 —
Célia KECK Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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