Riding profile

Haut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haut-Rhin

The question

Haut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Haut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haut-Rhin, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 31% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Raphaël SCHELLENBERGER

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.9%
  • LR and allies 31.1%
  • Left (NFP) 13.9%
  • Others 5.3%
  • Greens 1.9%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereHaut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription 46.9%31.1%13.9%5.3%
Provincial averageHaut-Rhin 40.8% +6.1 12.0% +19.0 17.6% −3.6 5.3%
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.0 12.2% +18.9 29.5% −15.6 3.9% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marion WILHELM RN and allies 30,294 44.9 —
Raphaël SCHELLENBERGER Elected LR and allies 21,166 31.4 —
Simone FEST Left (NFP) 10,352 15.3 —
Maxence HELFRICH Others 2,416 3.6 —
Corinne MORGEN Greens 1,754 2.6 —
Raymonde DIOP RN and allies 871 1.3 —
Aime SENSE Far left 582 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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