Riding profile

Haut-Rhin — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haut-Rhin

The question

Haut-Rhin — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Haut-Rhin — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haut-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 34% vote share, against 32% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Olivier BECHT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Competitive

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
19%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 33.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 32.3%
  • Left (NFP) 26.7%
  • Others 4.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Greens 0.6%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereHaut-Rhin — 5ème circonscription 33.8%32.3%26.7%4.8%
Provincial averageHaut-Rhin 40.8% −7.1 26.0% +6.2 17.6% +9.1 5.3% −0.5
National averageFrance 36.0% −2.2 20.6% +11.7 29.5% −2.8 3.9% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olivier BECHT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,749 37.2 —
Pierre PINTO RN and allies 14,096 29.6 —
Nadia EL HAJJAJI Left (NFP) 12,776 26.8 —
Jean-Frédéric BAECHLER Others 1,104 2.3 —
Rachid LOUNES Greens 567 1.2 —
Emmanuel TAFFARELLI RN and allies 544 1.1 —
David DOLUI Left (NFP) 308 0.7 —
Salah KELTOUMI Far left 287 0.6 —
Romain SPINALI Others 249 0.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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