Riding profile

Haut-Rhin — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haut-Rhin

The question

Haut-Rhin — 2ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Haut-Rhin — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haut-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Hubert OTT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
32%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 39.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.4%
  • Left (NFP) 14.6%
  • LR and allies 9.4%
  • Others 7.3%
  • Sovereignists 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereHaut-Rhin — 2ème circonscription 39.8%27.4%14.6%9.4%
Provincial averageHaut-Rhin 40.8% −1.1 26.0% +1.3 17.6% −3.0 12.0% −2.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.8 20.6% +6.8 29.5% −14.9 12.2% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nathalie AUBERT RN and allies 22,049 36.2 —
Hubert OTT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 19,785 32.5 —
Lilian BOURGEOIS Left (NFP) 9,228 15.1 —
Daniel KLACK LR and allies 5,012 8.2 —
Jean-Marc BURGEL Others 1,645 2.7 —
Tiffany STRAUB Others 1,641 2.7 —
Claudine SÉBERT Sovereignists 679 1.1 —
Victor OLRY RN and allies 477 0.8 —
Pascal NEUSCHWANGER Far left 280 0.5 —
Nathan DOUDE VAN TROOSTWIJK Left (NFP) 163 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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