Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 23% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Louise MOREL

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.7%
  • Left (NFP) 14.5%
  • LR and allies 14.5%
  • Others 4.8%
  • Sovereignists 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereBas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription 42.0%22.7%14.5%14.5%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 36.5% +5.5 20.5% +2.2 24.1% −9.5 12.9% +1.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.1 20.6% +2.1 29.5% −15.0 12.2% +2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent COUSSEDIERE RN and allies 25,275 38.5 —
Louise MOREL Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,228 27.8 —
Didier ANDRES Left (NFP) 10,076 15.3 —
Jean BIEHLER LR and allies 8,739 13.3 —
Carine HAMM Others 1,770 2.7 —
Patricia MARLE Sovereignists 634 1.0 —
Sabrina RITTER RN and allies 494 0.8 —
René CAMUS Far left 362 0.6 —
Ryan GEYER Others 79 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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