Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emmanuel FERNANDES

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.9%
  • RN and allies 24.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.6%
  • LR and allies 8.0%
  • Others 3.7%
  • Greens 1.8%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription 43.9%24.3%17.6%8.0%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 24.1% +19.8 36.5% −12.3 20.5% −2.9 12.9% −4.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +14.4 36.0% −11.7 20.6% −3.0 12.2% −4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emmanuel FERNANDES Elected Left (NFP) 21,533 43.9 —
Rebecca BREITMAN Centre (Ensemble) 11,063 22.6 —
Virginie JORON RN and allies 10,407 21.2 —
Alexandre WOLF SAMALOUSSI LR and allies 3,287 6.7 —
Cendrine DIEMUNSCH Others 819 1.7 —
Jean Marc GOVERNATORI Greens 685 1.4 —
Fabienne SCHNITZLER Greens 473 1.0 —
Elisa CLOLOT Left (NFP) 358 0.7 —
Alain RICHARD Far left 262 0.5 —
Clément SOUBISE Far left 154 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next