Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Vincent THIEBAUT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.1%
  • Left (NFP) 14.7%
  • LR and allies 10.0%
  • Others 6.1%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereBas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription 44.4%24.1%14.7%10.0%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 36.5% +7.8 20.5% +3.6 24.1% −9.3 12.9% −2.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.4 20.6% +3.6 29.5% −14.8 12.2% −2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marc WOLFF RN and allies 25,199 40.5 —
Vincent THIEBAUT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,206 29.2 —
Olivier TERRIEN Left (NFP) 9,680 15.6 —
Philippe PFRIMMER LR and allies 5,512 8.8 —
Maurice GLUCK Others 2,583 4.2 —
Robin GEROLT RN and allies 678 1.1 —
Yann LUCAS Far left 406 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next